Subjective Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Bangladesh

Résumé 0

The aim of this paper is to analyze how subjective perceptions of climate change of farmers in Bangladesh affect the implementation of on-farm adaptation strategies to climate change. I present a model of subjective perceptions and adaptation in response to a change in climatic conditions. The empirical analysis is based on a unique national-representative panel dataset of rural households in Bangladesh and adopts a two-step approach disentangling the role of subjective perceptions on on-farm adaptation. I assess the accuracy of beliefs by comparing subjective probabilities to historical meteorological data and find considerable heterogeneity in beliefs and accuracy, depending on weather events and seasonal patterns. Moreover, I test whether farmers are subject to confirmation bias, finding that they tend to recall information and overweight evidence in a way that it confirms their own beliefs. The accuracy of farmers’ beliefs explains differences in the adaptation decision-making process. A detailed comprehension of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies can significantly contribute to the design of adequate policies for agricultural security.