Crossovers between births falls and deaths peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Mexican case

Résumé 0

Objective: To describe patterns of crossovers between births and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Likewise, using vital statistics to measure delivery falls by mothers' ages. Methodology: To identify crossovers Official figures are presented. Predictions from a multivariate time series model are employed to dimension the birth falls in a counterfactual sense. Results: It is suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic is the reason for the anticipated crossover occurrence. The negative trend of births suffers a dramatic fall. However, in some cases, there are recoveries. Limitations: According to official figures, there may be under-recording of births and deaths due to availability and access to Register offices. Originality: To identify the COVID-19 impact on the anticipated occurrence of crossovers and birth falls in a country with previous public health problems. Conclusions: It is suggested that the anticipated occurrence of demographic crossovers resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. The significant fall in the number of births may impacto on an accelerated aging in this country.