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2010
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.2f6d77...
- hal: hal-00559492
- doi: 10.1080/01441640903166724
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/01441640903166724
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
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Virginie Dejoux et al., « Projection of the daily travel of an ageing population: The Paris and Montreal case, 1975-2020 », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.1080/01441640903166724
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Résumé
Ageing of the population, urban sprawl and car dependency will change travel patterns. The main objective of this paper is to give elements for a better understanding of the impact of changing demographics on the long term evolution of daily mobility using demographic-based models to forecast, for the elderly population, car-ownership, trip frequency, distance traveled, average trip distance. A second objective is to measure the impact of the long term tendencies observed on the appearance of new needs of travel demand such as a rapid increase of demand-responsive transport. The paper compares two agglomerations, both in a strong ageing process, but in quite different sociocultural contexts: a large European metropolis: Paris, and a medium sized north-american city: Montreal. Many common conclusions derived from the two different cases studies reinforce the possibility of generalizing the conclusions to other situations.
