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Trade, International World trade Global trade Foreign commerce Global commerce External trade Foreign trade Conation Volition Cetanā Turnery (Lathe work) Turning Lathe work Commercial products--Prices Commodity prices Price theory Justum pretium Coal-oil Oil Crude oil Animal oils Oil Grease Fats Funds Funding Council of Europe countries Economic growth Growth, Economic Development, Economic Indebtedness Finance, commerce, confiscations, etc Euro area Euro zone Economically advanced nations Industrialized countries Industrial societies Industrialized nations Economically advanced countries First World Advanced countries Developed nations Advanced nations Industrial nations Industrial countriesCiter ce document
Georg Feigl et al., « The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017 », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.2tldyz
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Nearly nine years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, recovery in Europe finally started in late 2014. We expect that economic growth is going to slow down in the EU in 2017 (1.6% after 1.9 % in 2016) and in 2018 (1.5%) as tailwinds are turning into headwinds. Brexit is likely to hit UK growth and will have negative, but limited, contagion effects to the rest of the EU. Oil prices are up again and not much more can be expected in terms of competitiveness gains through the exchange rate channel. More importantly the slowdown of international trade and of emerging countries’ growth is weakening external demand to the EU and hence another positive factor is waning. [First paragraph]