Fiche du document
2023
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.3dda70...
Cairn
Mots-clés
econometric modeling business cycles French economy narrative approach dating econometric modeling business cycles French economy narrative approach datingSujets proches
Frenchmen (French people) Hours (Time) Eras Economic fluctuations Economic cycles Lists of events Biography--Chronology Chronological listsCiter ce document
Antonin Aviat et al., « Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology », Revue économique, ID : 10670/1.3dda70...
Métriques
Partage / Export
Résumé
This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020. JEL codes: E32, E37, C24, N14.
