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2014
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.3f89d4...
- hal: hal-04141365
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
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Blaise Gnimassoun et al., « How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.3f89d4...
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This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.
