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3 juillet 2019
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.4f28ce...
- halshs: halshs-03193667
- doi: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1774392
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/01603477.2020.1774392
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
China Income distibution Rebalancing growth Macroeconomics Time series analysis B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches/B.B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E0 - General/E.E0.E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth • Environmental Accounts E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E12 - Keynes • Keynesian • Post-Keynesian E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E61 - Policy Objectives • Policy Designs and Consistency • Policy Coordination C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space ModelsCiter ce document
Bruno Jetin et al., « Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.1080/01603477.2020.1774392
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Résumé
Rebalancing growth in favor of domestic consumption has been an objective of Chinese policy makers for over two decades. However, until recently little progress has been achieved. This article argues that the nature of the demand regime is a major reason for the limited rebalancing operated thus far. Until the great recession (2008-09), Chinese growth was profit-led, which means that an increase in the profit share of income had a positive effect on investment and net exports that exceeded the negative effect on consumption. We show that after the great recession, China's demand regime turned wage-led, which means that an increase in the wage share results in a positive effect on households' consumption which exceeds the negative effect on investment and net exports. The conclusion is that a pro-labor policy may now contribute to rebalance China's growth and make it less dependent on exports, overinvestment and carbon-intensive industries.
