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30 décembre 2014
- handle: 10670/1.4s4fp4
- hal: hal-04511146
- doi: 10.1057/fp.2014.22
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1057/fp.2014.22
Mots-clés
Consumer confidence Political confidenceSujets proches
Living together Cohabitation Domestic partnersCiter ce document
Véronique Flambard et al., « Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship? », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1057/fp.2014.22
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Résumé
Consumer confidence and perceived political confidence are known to playindependently a crucial role in the economic growth of a country. Using French monthlyeconomic and political data, we analyse the relationships between the president, the primeminister and consumer confidence during cohabitation and non-cohabitation periods,based on a SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) model. During cohabitation periods,whenever the president’s confidence index increased the prime minister index decreased.Further, confidence in the prime minister was useful for predicting consumer confidence.During non-cohabitation periods, consumer confidence helps to forecast both the president’sconfidence and the prime minister’s confidence.