The impact of the COVID-19 enforced lockdown and fiscal package on the South African economy and environment: a preliminary analysis
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7 septembre 2021
- handle: 10670/1.52n0rt
- hal: hal-03663696
- doi: 10.1017/S1355770X21000243
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S1355770X21000243
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Political thought Government Political theory Civil government Commonwealth, The Science, Political Administration Politics Nurture and nature Nature versus nurture Genetics and environment Nature--Nurture Environment Heredity and environment Environment Balancing (Physics) Balance (Physics) Balance Ecological science Environmental biology Bionomics Ecological sciences Environment Balance of nature Oecology Biology--Ecology Ecological processes Environment Methods of analysis Analysis and chemistry Analytical methods Chemical analysis Analysis methods Analysis and examinationCiter ce document
Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu et al., « The impact of the COVID-19 enforced lockdown and fiscal package on the South African economy and environment: a preliminary analysis », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1017/S1355770X21000243
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This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse gas balance and emissions data. We find that while the economy is harshly impacted by the pandemic in the short term, the government fiscal package ameliorates and cushions the negative effects on poor households. Importantly, an adaptation of the fiscal package towards a ‘greener’ policy achieves the same economic outcome and reduces unemployment. Carbon dioxide emissions decrease in the short run due to economic slowdown. This improvement persists until 2030. These results can be used as decision support for policy makers on how to orient the post COVID-19 policies to be pro-poor and pro-environment, and thus, ‘build back better and fairer’.