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2022
- handle: 10670/1.6akjf0
- halshs: halshs-03920495
- doi: 10.1111/jpet.12617
- PUBMED: 36246735
- PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC9538933
- WOS: 000857824000001
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/jpet.12617
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/36246735
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/
Mots-clés
Decision Theory Vaccination Clinical Trials Immunization Campaigns Decision Theory Immunization Campaigns D - Microeconomics/D.D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I12 - Health BehaviorSujets proches
Communicable diseases--Vaccination Preventive inoculation Inoculation Preventive inoculation Diseases--VaccinationCiter ce document
d'Albis Hippolyte et al., « Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1111/jpet.12617
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Résumé
We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decisiontheoretic framework. We analyse a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviours of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviours and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviours and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.