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20 novembre 2024
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.6f449b...
- hal: hal-04794960
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Simulation Epidemiology modeling toolCiter ce document
Maxime Colomb et al., « ICI Project: Individual-based epidemic propagation simulator based on a Digital Twin », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.6f449b...
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IntroductionMulti-agent simulation can be used in the field of epidemiology to evaluate sanitary policies with a custom applicationon targeted sub-population or location. A multi-disciplinary team of geomaticians and probabilists develops theICI project. It generates a very detailed and realistic geographical environment and simulates the propagation of anindoor-driven epidemic in a middle sized city.MethodsWe create original data fusion algorithms using multiple datasources. We first model an exhausting census of activityor housing units within each buildings with spatial and functional attributes. We then generate a geolocalized andwell-detailed synthetic population. Each individual is assigned to a building’s activity for every time-lapses of thesimulation. A last module calculates probabilities of infections with a 9-state epidemiological model. Monte-Carloreplication are run in order to obtain robust results.ResultsA dedicated online application enables users to explore different characteristics of each set of input parameters(characteristics of the contamination, policies application, geographical zone…) or output indicators (sub-population,location of infection…). Spatio-temporal visual indicators are used to highlight spatial dynamic patterns. ICIsimulations are run by the OpenMOLE platform for model exploration purposes (sensitivity and diversity analysis,multi-objective optimizations of sanitary policies).ConclusionThe ICI platform makes it possible to elaborate and compare a wide range of precise sanitary policies onto well-detailed urban models. It raised great interest in the interventional epidemiologist community. A collaboration withpublic sanitary authorities starts in order to adapt the platform for the simulation of future pandemics. ICI is also partof the French National Digital Twin project.
