Impact of hurricanes strikes on international reserves in the Caribbean Impact des ouragans sur les réserves de change des pays caraibéins
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14 août 2020
- handle: 10670/1.74j515
- hal: hal-04280445
- doi: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1731411
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/00036846.2020.1731411
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Eric Strobl et al., « Impact des ouragans sur les réserves de change des pays caraibéins », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1080/00036846.2020.1731411
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Résumé
In this study, we investigate the impacts of hurricane shocks on the international reserves of Caribbean countries. To this end, we use a panel VARX (Vector Auto-Regressive, with exogenous variables) with monthly data that allow us to account for external shocks (hurricane strikes). Our results show that for the whole sample, an increase in foreign reserves a month after the strike was followed by a decrease 2 months later. The increase can be explained by remittances and emergency foreign aid granted by the International Monetary Fund. Dividing the sample into middle-income and high-income countries shows that the increase is mainly due to the latter. This outcome may not be surprising given that production in Caribbean high-income countries is mainly due to manufacturing, off-shore banking and natural resources exploitation, which are all non-weather dependent sectors, while the middle-income countries are mostly dependent on weather-prone agriculture and tourism.