Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin.
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- handle: 10670/1.7etx1g
- hal: hal-00168714
- doi: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2007.08.007
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Mots-clés
Finite-time ruin probability robustness Solvency II reliable ruin probability asymptotic Normality influence function Estimation Risk Solvency Margin (ERSM)Sujets proches
Probability Statistical inferenceCiter ce document
Stéphane Loisel et al., « Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin. », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2007.08.007
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Résumé
We consider the classical risk model and carry out a sensitivity and robustness analysis of finite-time ruin probabilities. We provide algorithms to compute the related influence functions. We also prove the weak convergence of a sequence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities starting from zero initial reserve toward a Gaussian random variable. We define the concepts of reliable finite-time ruin probability as a Value-at-Risk of the estimator of the finite-time ruin probability. To control this robust risk measure, an additional initial reserve is needed and called Estimation Risk Solvency Margin (ERSM). We apply our results to show how portfolio experience could be rewarded by cut-offs in solvency capital requirements. An application to catastrophe contamination and numerical examples are also developed.