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- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.85d499...
- halshs: halshs-03248938
- doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.018
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.018
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Terrorism Market forecast Expert forecast Political economy Econometrics Inflation Exchange rate Forecast performance Terrorism Market forecast Expert forecast C53 E37 F37 F51 Inflation Exchange rate Expert forecast C53 E37 F37 F51 Inflation forecasting Exchange rate forecasting Forecast performance C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications F - International Economics/F.F3 - International Finance/F.F3.F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications F - International Economics/F.F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy/F.F5.F51 - International Conflicts • Negotiations • SanctionsSujets proches
Prediction Forecasts FuturologyCiter ce document
Jonathan Benchimol et al., « Forecast performance in times of terrorism », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.018
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Résumé
Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty and assess the forecasting performance of market-based and professional inflation and exchange rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, the performance of both market-based and expert forecasts is significantly worse during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
