The controversial relationship between digital technology and employment

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Date

2018

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Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique

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Cairn.info

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Cairn

Mots-clés En

digital economy foresight employment

Sujets proches En

Working conditions

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Gérard Valenduc, « The controversial relationship between digital technology and employment », Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, ID : 10670/1.8b7b4b...

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The large discrepancy among current forecasts concerning the future of employment in the digital economy reflects deep divergences in the hypotheses and methodologies of existing studies. This paper compares three approaches. The first is based on an assessment of the risk of substitution of human tasks by intelligent machines, at the level of occupational profiles, and leads to very pessimistic forecasts. The second takes into account the heterogeneity of tasks, automatable or not, within each occupational group. Forecasts are much less pessimistic, as they also are in the third approach, which relies on an analysis of potentially automatable working conditions. Depending on the “threat level,” impacts on policy perspectives are quite different. JEL codes: O33 - E24

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