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2023
- handle: 10670/1.8ig78w
- halshs: halshs-04331269
- doi: 10.1007/s00199-023-01510-3
- WOS: 001035335200001
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00199-023-01510-3
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
COVID-19 Epidemic models Mobility C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C61 - Optimization Techniques • Programming Models • Dynamic Analysis I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health -bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieSujets proches
Mobility Internal migrationCiter ce document
d'Albis Hippolyte et al., « Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence? », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1007/s00199-023-01510-3
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Résumé
This paper disentangles the relationship between COVID-19 propagation and mobility. In a theoretical model allowing mobility to be endogenously determined by the COVID-19 prevalence rate, we show that an exogenous epidemic shock has an immediate effect on mobility whereas an exogenous mobility shock influences epidemic variables with a delay. In the long run, exogenous disease contagiousness and mobility jointly shape epidemiological outcomes. The short-run theoretical result allows us to recover, empirically, the causal impacts of mobility and COVID-19 hospitalisations on each other in France. We find that hospitalisations are highly sensitive to mobility whereas mobility is little influenced by hospitalisations. In France, it seems therefore that voluntary social distancing would not have been effective to control the epidemic, in the absence of social distancing mandates.