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- handle: 10670/1.8nkrh8
- halshs: halshs-01241882
- doi: 10.1111/jcom.12145
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/jcom.12145
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Social Media contentious politics granger causality test occupy indignados vinegar protestsSujets proches
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Marco T. Bastos et al., « Tents, Tweets, and Events: The Interplay Between Ongoing Protests and Social Media », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1111/jcom.12145
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Recent protests have fuelled deliberations about the extent to which social media ignites popular uprisings. In this paper we use time-series data of Twitter, Facebook, and onsite protests to assess the Granger-causality between social media streams and onsite developments at the Indignados, Occupy, and Brazilian Vinegar protests. After applying a Gaussianization procedure to the data, we found that contentious communication on Twitter and Facebook forecasted onsite protest during the Indignados and Occupy protests, with bidirectional Granger-causality between online and onsite protest in the Occupy series. Conversely, the Vinegar demonstrations presented Granger-causality between Facebook and Twitter communication, and separately between protestors and injuries/arrests onsite. We conclude that the effective forecasting of protest activity likely varies across different instances of political unrest.