Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment
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1 octobre 2015
- handle: 10670/1.8vroqm
- hal: hal-03459685
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/4bof55ub0d81jp8cjpl5p0ecup
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Gissela Landa et al., « Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.8vroqm
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Résumé
This paper simulates the medium- and long-term impact of proposed and expected energy policy on the environment and on the Mexican economy. The analysis has been conducted with a Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy (Three-ME). This model is well suited for policy assessment purposes in the context of developing economies as it indicates the transitional effects of policy intervention. Three-ME estimates the carbon tax required to meet emissions reduction targets within the Mexican “Climate Change Law”, and assesses alternative policy scenarios, each reflecting a different strategy for the recycling of tax revenues. With no compensation, the taxation policy if successful will succeed in in reducing CO2 emissions by more than 75% by 2050 with respect to Business as Usual (BAU), but at high economic costs. Under full redistribution of carbon tax revenues, a double dividend arises and the policy is beneficial both in terms of GDP and CO2 emissions reduction.