The calm before the storm: A punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics

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Research has shown that policymaking in numerous domestic policies, across a multitude of polities, systematically produces a pattern of change that matches Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), characterized by many incremental and occasional dramatic changes. The field of International Relations (IR), however, has paid surprisingly little attention to PET, even though the same pattern of change is also found in international politics. This study attempts to fill this gap and explains stability and change in international politics based on PET. Specifically, we detail the dynamics behind this pattern of behavior, both at the domestic and the international level, as well as their interplay. The empirical section shows that different indicators of international politics, including troop deployments, foreign aid and international trade, follow a leptokurtic pattern of change, which characterizes Punctuated Equilibrium, and whereby changes in countries' behavior are generally incremental, representing periods of relative stability, and punctuated by large changes that dramatically overthrow existing policies. Moreover, our results indicate that policy outputs where greater friction is at play are more punctuated than those policies that cannot as easily or directly be managed. This study urges future research to further explore the dynamics of stability and change at the aggregate, international level.