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30 avril 2025
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.97ccd9...
- hal: hal-05023744
- doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103597
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103597
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/ , info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Earth system World3 prospective scenario structural analysis discrete-event limits to growthSujets proches
Novels Fiction--Plots Dramatic plots Drama--Plot Scenarios Screen plays Filmscripts Photoplays Film scripts Moving-picture plays Scripts (Motion pictures) Film plays Screenplays Motion picture scripts ScenariosCiter ce document
Capucine Pierrel et al., « From Complexity to Clarity: Eden3's Novel Perspective on Limits to Growth », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103597
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Résumé
Fifty years after the publication of Limits to Growth (LtG), its scenarios predicting global socio-economic collapse are still relevant. In this study, we extracted key components and processes from the LtG narratives to construct a simple qualitative model based on solely 13 variables and 40 qualitative rules. Our modeling framework enables the computation of all possible system trajectories (scenarios) within a single output once the model is accepted. By retracing all scenarios presented in LtG, our model uncovered highly interconnected trajectories leading to either sustainability or collapse. Through this work, we demonstrate that the co-authors of LtG successfully tackled the challenge of exhaustively representing all conceivable trajectories for the global system based on their core assumptions. Furthermore, our study paves the way for exploring alternative scenarios by applying this comprehensive, yet straightforward framework to newly acquired knowledge.
