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1 novembre 2014
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.9ba19f...
- hal: hal-03460186
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/5bli88krr28f68nvhfe1qtsl9l
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/5bli88krr28f68nvhfe1qtsl9l
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Mots-clés
agent-based model fiscal policy economic crises austerity policies C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook G - Financial Economics/G.G1 - General Financial Markets G - Financial Economics/G.G2 - Financial Institutions and Services/G.G2.G21 - Banks • Depository Institutions • Micro Finance Institutions • Mortgages O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate ProductivityCiter ce document
Giovanni Dosi et al., « The Short-and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.9ba19f...
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Résumé
In this work we analyze the short- and long-run effects of fiscal austerity policies, employing an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, boundedly-rational firms and banks. The model, in line with the family of “Keynes+Schumpeter” formalism, is able to account for a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. In particular, it endogenously generates self-sustained growth patterns together with persistent economic fluctuations punctuated by deep downturns. On the policy side, we find that austerity policies considerably harm the economy, by increasing output volatility, unemployment, and the incidence of crises. In addition, they depress innovation and the diffusion of new technologies, thus reducing long-run productivity and GDP growth. Finally, we show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules are self-defeating, as they do not stabilize public finances, but, on the contrary, they disrupt them.
