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20 novembre 2024
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.9dd32e...
- hal: hal-04866069
- doi: 10.1098/rsos.240366
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.240366
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ , info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
agent-based modelling fertility reproductive process demography approximate Bayesian computationSujets proches
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Daniel Ciganda et al., « Modelling the age pattern of fertility: an individual-level approach », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.1098/rsos.240366
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Résumé
Fitting statistical models to aggregate data is still the dominant approach in many demographic and biodemographic applications. Although these macro-level models have proven useful for a variety of tasks, they often have no demographic interpretation. Individual-level modelling, on the other hand, offers a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed patterns. Their parameters represent quantities in the real world, instead of pure mathematical abstractions. However, estimating these parameters using real-world data has remained a challenge. The approach we introduce in this article attempts to overcome this limitation. Using a likelihood-free inference technique, we show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of a simple but demographically interpretable individual-level model of the reproductive process by exclusively relying on the information contained in a set of age-specific fertility rates. By estimating individual-level models from widely available aggregate data, this approach can contribute to a better understanding of reproductive behaviour and its driving mechanisms, bridging the gap between individual-level and population-level processes. We illustrate our approach using data from three natural fertility populations.
