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2024
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Christophe Blot, « Is the Phillips Curve Relevant to Understanding the Connection between Inflation and Unemployment? », Revue d'économie financière, ID : 10670/1.a09d34...
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Résumé
Although the Phillips curve plays an important role in macroeconomic models, empirical studies have often shown that the link between inflation and unemployment is actually weak or even non-existent. This article shows that the Phillips curve remains a relevant framework for analyzing inflation and understanding the inflation-unemployment relationship. The instability of the estimations results both from the difficulties of measuring labor market tensions and inflation expectations, and from the curve's non-linear character. In addition, changes in monetary policy strategy since the 1980s and the globalization of economies may affect the correlation between inflation and unemployment. JEL classification: E31, E32, E37.
