On the empirical relevance of the Lucas supply curve. (A note)

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Date

2018

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Source

HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société)

Collection

Archives ouvertes

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Centre pour la communication scientifique directe

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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess

Mots-clés En

inflation surprise imported inflation output gap natural rate of unemployment Lucas supply curve

Sujets proches En

Astonishment

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Claude Bismut et al., « On the empirical relevance of the Lucas supply curve. (A note) », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.a9bf53...

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In this paper we extend the usual Lucas supply curve to allow the likely external influence on inflation, together with domestic conditions. We test the relationship between the inflation surprise, the output gap and the real exchange rate using simple time series regressions on annual data for a list of 16 developed countries. These tests confirm the empirical relevance of the Lucas supply curve but also support the assumption that part of the inflation surprise may come from unexpected variations of the real exchange rate.

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