Facteurs prédictifs de la mortalité dans les trois ans chez les personnes âgées

Résumé 0

This paper deals with analysis of predictive factors of three years mortality in a representative sample of 1082 people aged 65 and over, in Upper Normandy (France). It focuses on the functional disabilities and the main diseases indicated by general practitioners after a medical examination, as well as on social background. No variable related to social background (educational level, previous occupation, present income level) seems to be predictive of three years mortality. Two variables concerning diseases appear to be related to mortality : mental deterioration and exertional dyspnoea. Among disabilities variables, the level of confinement seems the most predictive indicator of mortality. When we include in a logistic regression all significant variables, plus age and sex, five variables remain significative : level of confinement, age, sex, recent hospitalization (before the initial survey) and exertional dyspnoea. In each age and sex group, the application of the predicting function allows the characterisation of a group whose mortality within three years is more than double that of the rest of the population.