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- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.ac44cc...
- hal: hal-03403598
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/3hl21donng96ubltprbukm3fd3
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Conation Volition Cetanā Public debt Sovereign debt National debts Government debts Debts, Government Public debts Euro area Euro zoneCiter ce document
Christophe Blot et al., « The euro area at the edge of the downturn: is there any room for manoeuvre? », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.ac44cc...
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This Policy brief presents the last OFCE forecasts on the euro area countries and addresses the issue of margins for manoeuvre to cope with an extended period of economic slowdown in the area. Will fiscal rules fetter policy reaction? We forecast a growth rate of 1.2%, but negative risks remain substantial. We then discuss public debt evolution and compute the fiscal policies necessary to reach a 60% public debtover GDP target in 2040. The fiscal consolidation appears unrealistic in some countries, questioning the credibility of this target. In addition, we investigate the (moderate) effect of interest rate on the fiscal consolidation requirement. Finally, the very notion of fiscal space will depend on the speed of adjustment of public debt and on the level of interest rates.
