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1 janvier 2020
- handle: 10670/1.b0so1m
- hal: hal-03471315
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j
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Migration, International Immigration International migration Foreign population ImmigrationCiter ce document
Max Viskanic, « Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit? », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.b0so1m
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Can large immigration inflows impact electoral outcomes and specifically, whatimpact did immigration have on the vote in favour of leaving the European Union(Brexit) in the United Kingdom? In particular, I focus on how the increase in Polishimmigration, the major group of immigrants post 2004, affected votes in favour ofleaving the EU. I find a percentage point increase in Polish immigration to the UKto have caused an increase in votes in favour of Brexit of about 2.72-3.12 percentagepoints, depending on the specification. To obtain exogenous variation in Polishimmigration, I collect data from the archives that reveals the location of PolishWar Resettlement Camps after Word War II, which location is plausibly exogenousto current political outcomes. Discussing potential mechanisms, I examine publicopinion data in the British Election Study 2015 and find evidence of adversitytowards immigration to be a root cause. Other considerations such as the NationalHealth Service (NHS), incumbency and the general trust in politicians as well asthe political institutions seem not to play a role.