Risking the Future? Measuring Risk Attitudes towards Delayed Consequences

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Date

31 août 2021

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Type de document
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Source

HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société)

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Archives ouvertes

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Centre pour la communication scientifique directe

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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess

Mots-clés En

Risk Attitudes Time Rank Dependent Utility Delay Future Consequences D81 D90 C91

Sujets proches En

Probability Statistical inference

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Emmanuel Kemel et al., « Risking the Future? Measuring Risk Attitudes towards Delayed Consequences », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.bcc8fe...

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This paper presents an experiment that investigates differences of risk attitudes in decisions with immediate versus delayed consequences. Our experimental design allows to control for the effects of discounting and timing of risk resolution. We show that individuals are more risk tolerant in situations involving delayed consequences. Investigations based on rank-dependent utility show that this finding is mainly driven by probability weighting. More precisely, probability weighting is more elevated for delayed consequences, suggesting an overall increase in decision maker's optimism regarding the chances of success associated to risks for which consequences materialize in the future.

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