Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities

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2002

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Dominique Arel, « Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities », Population, ID : 10.2307/3246617


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Arel Dominique.- Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities The first post-Soviet censuses have presented new political challenges to census officials in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Baltic countries. Three issues have dominated the agenda: migration, confidentiality, and ethnic nationality. Overall population figures have officially decreased in all post-Soviet countries, but the Russian state's incapacity and unwillingness to record unregistered migration is producing a deceptive demographic decline. A general mistrust of the state has made people sceptical of guarantees of confidentiality of census data. The mistrust is greatest in Russia and the census has revealed a post- authoritarian state uncertain about how to approach its own population. Post-Soviet censuses, unlike western ones, have all kept a question on ethnic nationality, since nationality legitimates their sovereignty. The Kazakh census has been preoccupied with producing ethnic Kazakh majorities, at the national level and in gerrymandered provinces. The Russian Federation, the only federation in the world that links ethnicity to territory, has faced a plethora of claims to recognition of new nationalities in the census, including the Cossack. On language, the Ukrainian and Baltic censuses have attempted to minimize the Russian presence by statistical means, while the Belarusian census aims at underreporting knowledge of Belarusian. The article argues that all these disputed census categories reflect political interests.

Arel Dominique.- Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities The first post-Soviet censuses have presented new political challenges to census officials in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Baltic countries. Three issues have dominated the agenda: migration, confidentiality, and ethnic nationality. Overall population figures have officially decreased in all post-Soviet countries, but the Russian state's incapacity and unwillingness to record unregistered migration is producing a deceptive demographic decline. A general mistrust of the state has made people sceptical of guarantees of confidentiality of census data. The mistrust is greatest in Russia and the census has revealed a post- authoritarian state uncertain about how to approach its own population. Post-Soviet censuses, unlike western ones, have all kept a question on ethnic nationality, since nationality legitimates their sovereignty. The Kazakh census has been preoccupied with producing ethnic Kazakh majorities, at the national level and in gerrymandered provinces. The Russian Federation, the only federation in the world that links ethnicity to territory, has faced a plethora of claims to recognition of new nationalities in the census, including the Cossack. On language, the Ukrainian and Baltic censuses have attempted to minimize the Russian presence by statistical means, while the Belarusian census aims at underreporting knowledge of Belarusian. The article argues that all these disputed census categories reflect political interests.

Arel Dominique.- Demografia y Política en los los Primeros Censos Post-Soviéticos: Desconfíanza en el Estado, Identidades en Cuestión Los primeros censos post-soviéticos, llevados a cabo en Rusia, Ucrania, Bielorrusia, Kazakistan y los paises Bálticos, presentaron nuevos retos políticos a los agentes censales. Las discusiones se centraron en très temas: migración, confidencialidad y nacionalidad étnica. Los datos oficiales muestran que la población ha disminuido en todos los paises post-soviéticos, pero la incapacidad y falta de voluntad del estado Ruso de tomar en cuenta las migra- ciones no registradas ha producido un déclive demográfico engaňoso. La desconfianza general en el estado ha creado escepticismo en cuanto a las garantías de confidencialidad de los datos del censo. Tal desconfianza es mayor en Rusia, donde el censo ha puesto en evidencia un estado post-autoritano inseguro acerca de cómo dirigirse a sus propios ciudadanos. Los censos post-soviéticos, a diferencia de los occidentales, han incluido una pregunta sobre nacionalidad étnica, puesto que la nacionalidad légitima su soberanía. El censo de Kazakistan ha procurado obtener mayorías étmcas kazak a nivel nacionál y en las provincias cuyos limites fronterizos se han amaňado. La Federación Rusa, la única federación del mundo que vincula la etnia con el territo- rio, ha tenido que hacer frente a un sinfín de declaraciones de nuevas nacionahdades, incluy- endo la cosaca, en el censo. En cuanto al idioma, los censos de Ucrania y de los paises Bálticos han intentado minimizar la presencia del ruso por medios estadísticos, mientras que el censo de Bielorrusia ha intentado reflejar un nivel de conocimiento del bielorruso inferior el real. Este artículo argumenta que todas estas categorias censales polémicas reflejan intereses políticos.

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