Explaining the Electoral Success of the Extreme Right : Kitschelt’s “Winning Formula” Tested in the 1999 Flemish Elections

Résumé 0

Kitschelt formulates in 1995 two theories about the success of extreme right parties in Western Europe. First, there is the « winning formula » to attract supporters : a market-liberal stance combined with an authoritarian-particularistic stance. Secondly, there is the « theory of social preference formation » linking the voter with these political orientations. According to Kit-schelt, the voter’s preference will be mainly, but not exclusively determined by his/her occupational qualifications and employment sector in advanced industrial society. Kitschelt winning formula theory was criticized by different authors as well in France as in the rest of Europe. His case selection neglected one of the most successful prototypical extreme right parties : the Flemish-Belgian Vlaams Blok. Using the Belgian National Election study 1999, we will test in a confirmatory way Kitschelt’s hypotheses using properly measured concepts and with the Vlaams Blok as the case. Rejecting the « winning formula » hypothesis, we can confirm partially the role of occupational qualifications and employment sector, but have to recognize also the validity of « the losers of modernization theory » to explain extreme right voting preference.