The Effects of War in Ukraine on Global Commodity Markets

Résumé 0

The war in Ukraine constitutes a major supply shock on the world commodities markets, which have already been under severe pressure since the beginning of 2021. The price dynamics induced are mainly explained by the combined share of the belligerents in world exports, but their transmission also depends on characteristics specific to each market, such as the level of stocks, the degree of market segmentation, or export restrictions, as well as the contagion effects of gas prices on those of other commodities, and the intensity of speculative strategies, both bullish and bearish. In the longer term, the question of the impact of this major event on the structural changes already underway in world commodity markets must be asked, particularly with links the energy transition. Classification JEL : F51, G10, H77, Q31.