Modeling Social Movement Dynamics in Social Media Through Fluid Reality Theory: A Synthesis of Cultural Foundations and Mathematical Modeling

Résumé En

This paper advances a novel theoretical framework synthesizing empirical data with mathematical modeling to elucidate the multidimensional dynamics of social movement trajectories within digital spheres. Moving beyond reductive analytic approaches that privilege immediate virality metrics, our integrated model explicitly incorporates the historical-cultural substrate-the "memetic past"-upon which contemporary social media movements necessarily emerge. Through differential equations derived from Fluid Reality Theory, we formalize the interrelationships between cultural resonance, network topology, and boundary permeability to predict three critical parameters: the probability of a movement becoming a center of digital attraction, its maximum influence amplitude, and its temporal persistence. Computational validation against empirical data from recent social movements demonstrates that the inclusion of cultural-historical foundations (E_h) significantly enhances predictive accuracy, accounting for approximately 42% of environmental input in movement propagation. This research bridges persistent epistemological divides between sociological theories of collective action and computational approaches by reconceptualizing social movements emerging from dynamic boundary processes mediating between established cultural narratives and emergent digital practices. The resulting theoretical synthesis offers explanatory power and practical utility for scholars, activists, and policymakers navigating the increasingly complex landscape of digital socialization.