The Russian Economy’s Turn Towards Asia

Résumé 0

The war with Ukraine and Western sanctions are inexorably leading the Russian economy to turn to developing Asia, which is the only possible antidote to the collapse of its relations with Europe. The Asian continent is relatively resilient to the macroeconomic shock of this war and its energy dependence will continue to fuel the reorientation of Russian exports. The prospects for new Asian partnerships and investments in Russia are for the moment limited by the withdrawal of companies from developed Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) and the prudence of large developing Asian groups in the face of the current economic and reputation risks. Asia will therefore not quickly fill the gaps left by Western companies on the Russian market. In the long term, openness towards Moscow is based in a majority of Asian countries on political neutrality with regard to the conflict and on long-standing military and geo-strategic ties that will be maintained. On the monetary front, China will try to build an ambitious Russo-Asian alliance to counter the hegemony of the dollar. Classification JEL : F50, F51, F59, F65.