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2024
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.e7acda...
- hal: hal-04582964
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Exchange rate regimes (De)industrialization Manufacturing Developing countries Emerging economiesSujets proches
Underdeveloped countries Third World Emerging nations NICs (Newly industrialized countries) Fourth World Global South Underdeveloped areas Newly industrialized countries Least developed countries LDC's Less developed countries Newly industrializing countriesCiter ce document
Valérie Mignon et al., « The industrial cost of fixed exchange rate regimes », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.e7acda...
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Résumé
Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector.
