Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information

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Date

2004

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Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jmateco.2003.06.004

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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess


Résumé En

We develop an axiomatic approach to decision under uncertainty that explicitly takes into account the information available to the decision maker. The information is described by a set of priors and a reference prior. We define a notion of imprecision for this informational setting and show that a decision maker who is averse to information imprecision maximizes the minimum expected utility computed with respect to a subset of the set of initially given priors. The extent to which this set is reduced can be seen as a measure of imprecision aversion. This approach thus allows a lot of flexibility in modelling the decision maker attitude towards imprecision. In contrast, applyingGilboa-Schmeidler [1989] maxmin criterion to the initial set of priors amounts to assuming extreme pessimism.

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