Fiche du document
4 juillet 2023
- handle: 10670/1.ed7urv
- hal: hal-04184412
- doi: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2227416
- WOS: WOS:001022718700001
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/00036846.2023.2227416
Mots-clés
Climate Global warming Technology Environmental policy Growth Long-term projections E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E23 - Production E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications H - Public Economics/H.H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue/H.H2.H23 - Externalities • Redistributive Effects • Environmental Taxes and Subsidies O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O5 - Economywide Country Studies/O.O5.O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q48 - Government Policy Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global WarmingSujets proches
Science of climate Climate Climate scienceCiter ce document
Claire Alestra et al., « How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation? », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1080/00036846.2023.2227416
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Résumé
This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the 2015 Paris Agreement goals of net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming below 2°C in 2100. It uses the Advanced Climate Change Long-term model (ACCL), particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price and technology shocks on CO2 emissions, temperature, climate damage and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The simulations show that without climate policies the warming may be +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. An acceleration in ‘usual’ technical progress not targeted at reducing CO2- even worsens global warming and climate damage. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without ‘green’ technologies. Intervening only via energy prices, e.g. a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy combining energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of ‘clean’ electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of polluting energy sources. None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals.