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1 octobre 2017
- handle: 10670/1.ejc27z
- hal: hal-03458503
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs
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Mots-clés
Fiscal rules Fiscal regimes Public debt sustainability Time varyins parameters Markov switching models Model based sustainability E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook H - Public Economics/H.H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and DebtSujets proches
Taxation--Government policy Tax policyCiter ce document
Pierre Aldama et al., « Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ? », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.ejc27z
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Résumé
Historical data on US debt and primary surplus suggest the existence of different fiscal regimes which implythat, from time to time, US fiscal policy may have violated the government’s intertemporal budget constraint.But does evidence of locally unsustainable regimes eventually jeopardize the global sustainability of US publicdebt? We apply a Regime-Switching Model-Based Sustainability test which derives sufficient conditions on aregime-switching fiscal policy feeback rule such that fiscal policy can globally be sustainable while allowing forpersistent unsustainable regimes. We find significant evidence of a globally Ricardian US fiscal policy, despiteperiodic and persistent unsustainable fiscal regimes. This conclusion remains valid after controlling for thereverse causality between the primary balance and the output gap.