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- handle: 10670/1.eogy31
- hal: hal-04103906
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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//822781/EU/Growth Welfare Innovation Productivity/GROWINPRO
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Input-output Covid-19 Lockdown Italy C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C67 - Input–Output Models D - Microeconomics/D.D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium/D.D5.D57 - Input–Output Tables and Analysis E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics/R.R1 - General Regional Economics/R.R1.R15 - Econometric and Input–Output Models • Other ModelsCiter ce document
Severin Reissl et al., « Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.eogy31
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Résumé
We build a novel computational input-output model to estimate the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. The key advantage of our framework is to integrate the regional and sectoral dimensions of economic production in a very parsimonious numerical simulation framework. Lockdowns are treated as shocks to available labor supply and they are calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. We show that when estimated on data from the first "hard" lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. In addition, we show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample forecasting performance. We also analyze the effects of the second "mild" lockdown in fall of 2020 which delivered a much more moderate negative impact on production compared to both the spring 2020 lockdown and to a hypothetical second "hard" lockdown.