The Russian military threat: An assessment

Résumé 0

Since 2014, the notion of Russia as a military threat has become commonplace in the European and Euro-Atlantic strategic debate. This is due primarily to the fact that in Ukraine Russia seriously challenged the world order that was built during and after the Cold War by violating several of its basic principles and conventions. Its intense military activity in Europe and its Syrian military operations have only heightened the concerns of Western countries on this score. In the very tense resulting context, it is all the more important to undertake a thorough assessment of the situation of the Russian armed forces—both its strengths and weaknesses—and to conduct a sober analysis of the role that the military plays in Moscow’s overall strategy. A country effectively represents a threat not only because of the military capacity that it controls: much also depends on mutual perceptions and reciprocal intentions. These merit careful analysis and are essential for an understanding of the various implications of Russia asserting its hard power on the world stage.