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avril 2023
- handle: 10670/1.g0kl1h
- hal: hal-03987371
- doi: 10.1016/j.socec.2022.101969
- WOS: 000924541200001
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.socec.2022.101969
Mots-clés
Refugee migration Risk preferences Experimental economics Cumulative Prospect Theory C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C9 - Design of Experiments/C.C9.C91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F22 - International Migration K - Law and Economics/K.K3 - Other Substantive Areas of Law/K.K3.K37 - Immigration Law K - Law and Economics/K.K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior/K.K4.K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of LawSujets proches
Displaced persons Displaced personsCiter ce document
Jenny Helstroffer et al., « Modelling refugee migration under cognitive biases: Experimental evidence and policy », HALSHS : archive ouverte en Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société, ID : 10.1016/j.socec.2022.101969
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Résumé
In this paper, we develop a model for refugee migration. As refugees’ migration choices are made in a risk-laden environment, we compare two different theoretical frameworks of decision making under risk, namely Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). This last framework accounts for a reference point, loss aversion, and probability distortion. We estimate refugees’ risk and time preference parameters using field experimental data and show CPT better explains refugees’ risk behaviour on average. We also investigate policy implications based on simulations. We show that, under CPT, compared to standard EUT, the value of migrating is consistently lower and the migration decision is more sensitive to policy changes. Our results suggest refugees may self-select based on their risk preferences, those exhibiting more loss aversion or less probability sensitivity being more likely to renounce migration as a reaction to migration policies.