The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: Evidence from Mexico
Fiche du document
- handle: 10670/1.g7bobn
- hal: hal-03399622
- doi: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1373623
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/kkl2uctrr9eibto9e0ek0pfb7
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/14693062.2017.1373623
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/kkl2uctrr9eibto9e0ek0pfb7
Mots-clés
Climate CO2 emissionsSujets proches
Prediction Forecasts FuturologyCiter ce document
Fatemeh Bakhtiari et al., « The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: Evidence from Mexico », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1080/14693062.2017.1373623
Métriques
Partage / Export
Résumé
Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.