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- handle: 10670/1.ge9jat
- hal: hal-03393018
- doi: 10.1057/imfer.2014.19
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/gaufue4me9tvqtg0t3u18e3la
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Mots-clés
one-child policy social security demographics H - Public Economics/H.H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies/H.H5.H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E21 - Consumption • Saving • WealthSujets proches
Insurance, State and compulsory Social insurance Insurance, SocialCiter ce document
Nicolas Coeurdacier et al., « Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10.1057/imfer.2014.19
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Résumé
This paper analyzes the impact of relaxing fertility controls and expanding social security in China. We develop an overlapping generations model in which fertility decisions and capital accumulation are endogenously determined in the presence of social security. In our model, children are an alternative savings technology—as they transfer resources to their retired parents. Important feedback links arise between fertility and social security variables: an expansion of social security benefits reduces fertility—partially offsetting the effects of relaxing the one-child policy. The feedback loop between social security variables and fertility suggests that abandoning fertility restrictions may not be as effective in helping to finance China’s intended pension reform, especially if children are an important source of old-age support. The sustainability of the pension system is particularly at risk in the event of a growth slowdown. The objective of pension reforms may also be incongruent with other reforms, such as financial liberalization and financial integration.