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- doi: 10.1007/s00191-018-0590-4
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/1p3k1810c89k3b4gg6n2nuc0m4
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Mots-clés
Business cycles Granular residual Granularity hypothesis Agent-based models Firm dynamics Productivity growth Investment growth C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E12 - Keynes • Keynesian • Post-Keynesian E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E22 - Investment • Capital • Intangible Capital • Capacity E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate ProductivitySujets proches
Economic fluctuations Economic cycles TradeCiter ce document
Giovanni Dosi et al., « Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10.1007/s00191-018-0590-4
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Résumé
In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (Econometrica 79:733–772, 2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on “supply granularity”, as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a “demand granularity”, based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family Dosi et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 52:166–189, 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.