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1 janvier 2021
- handle: 10670/1.hvag1i
- hal: hal-03373425
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
business cycles French economy dating narrative approach econometric modeling E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C24 - Truncated and Censored Models • Switching Regression Models • Threshold Regression Models N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N14 - Europe: 1913–Sujets proches
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Antonin Aviat et al., « Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.hvag1i
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Résumé
This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.