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2023
- handle: 10670/1.j2j5bo
- hal: hal-04227459
- doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102882
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102882
Mots-clés
Risk premium Project-specific discount rate Survey evidence D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty G - Financial Economics/G.G1 - General Financial Markets/G.G1.G11 - Portfolio Choice • Investment Decisions Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation/Q.Q2.Q28 - Government PolicySujets proches
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Christian Gollier et al., « The discounting premium puzzle: Survey evidence from professional economists », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102882
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Résumé
We surveyed economists’ attitudes toward adjusting discount rates to the risk profile of public programs. Three-quarters of respondents recommend to use project-specific discount rates. For example, on average, respondents discount railway infrastructures more than hospitals and climate mitigation. But the degree of discount discrimination between distinct risk profiles of different projects is fairly limited in our sample given the differences in risk profiles for these projects. Economic experts thus penalize risky public projects far less than financial markets penalize private investments. We call this the ”discount premium puzzle”. Finally, among experts in favor of a single discount rate, there is no consensus on whether it should be based on the average cost of capital in the economy, the sovereign borrowing cost, or the Ramsey rule, which gives rise to disagreement over the level of the recommended discount rate.