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- handle: 10670/1.jjl3bn
- halshs: halshs-01885949
- doi: 10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn
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Mots-clés
economy migration volatility remittances stock-flow consistent models Moldova business cycles Remittances Stock-flow consistent models Business cycles Migration Volatility E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E12 - Keynes • Keynesian • Post-Keynesian E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F22 - International Migration F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F24 - Remittances F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F43 - Economic Growth of Open EconomiesSujets proches
Migrant farm workers Agricultural migrants Migrants Migrant agricultural workers Foreign-born population Foreign population Emigrants Foreigners MigrantsCiter ce document
Edwin Le Héron et al., « The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039
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Résumé
Migrants’ remittances are an essential source of income in many developing countries. In this article, we build a post-Keynesian stock–flow consistent model adapted to Moldova, one of the top recipients of remittances. In addition to increasing household consumption, migrants’ transfers have strong effects on economic growth in Moldova. However, remittances are very sensitive to the economic conditions in migrants’ destination countries, especially since the 2008 global financial crisis. After including remittances in consumption behavior and lenders’ risk, we run simulations to show how shocks in migrants’ destination countries (that is, Europe and Russia) impact the Moldovan economy through fluctuations in remittances. First, the increasing instability of remittances explains a significant portion of the economic volatility experienced by Moldova. Second, the high level of imports implies a weak multiplier effect of remittances, leading to an unsustainable pattern of growth.