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- handle: 10670/1.jzmw5w
- halshs: halshs-01802688
- doi: 10.1257/mac.20140154
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1257/mac.20140154
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Gilles Saint-Paul, « The Possibility of Ideological Bias in Structural Macroeconomic Models », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1257/mac.20140154
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Résumé
An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent—its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations of parameters must be truthfully revealed, illustrating the tight link between parameter identification and the scope for bias that is implied by the autocoherence conditions.