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1 juin 2011
- handle: 10670/1.l7xyx9
- hal: hal-03461450
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/5qprs2oieq8mep8qc5tbvik9ph
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/5qprs2oieq8mep8qc5tbvik9ph
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Global Imbalances Disinflation Business Fluctuations Open Economy Macroeconomics E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F41 - Open Economy MacroeconomicsCiter ce document
Jean Barthélemy et al., « Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.l7xyx9
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Résumé
We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target changes, and permanent shocks to the openness of the economies. We then define the cycle as the gap between this sustainable trajectory and the gross data, thus our model properly deals with deviations of the trade balance. Finally, we find persistent and strong effects from the asymmetric increase of euro area imports during the last ten years on domestic inflation. From the first quarter of 2000 to the last quarter of 2008, we estimate the contribution of the imbalanced development of international trade on euro area inflation to an average of -0,7%, and on the 3-Month interest rate to an average of -1,4%.