Facing Nuclear War: Luck, Learning, and the Cuban Missile Crisis

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16 août 2023

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Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE)

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Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198873457.013.47

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Sciences Po - SPIRE

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Sciences Po

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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess

Mots-clés En

nuclear war risk counter-factuals Cuban Missile Crisis agency narratives Cold War

Sujets proches En

Thermonuclear warfare CBR warfare Atomic warfare Nuclear strategy Nuclear war

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Richard Ned Lebow et al., « Facing Nuclear War: Luck, Learning, and the Cuban Missile Crisis », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198873457.013.47

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The possibility of thermonuclear war has in many ways shaped the agendas of History and International Relations. Rigorous counterfactual analysis effectively demonstrates that the risks of unintended and runaway escalation were higher than generally assumed. Nuclear war planning and proposals for arms control and disarmament are based on imagined future scenarios. Current thinking about the future rarely goes beyond extrapolation. Counterfactual analysis provides a more sophisticated foundation for forward looking narratives in contrast to the usual extrapolation of present trends.

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