A Markovian decision model of adaptive cancer treatment and quality of life

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Peter Bayer et al., « A Markovian decision model of adaptive cancer treatment and quality of life », Archive Ouverte d'INRAE, ID : 10670/1.mrejrk


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This paperdevelopsandanalyzesaMarkovchainmodelforthetreatmentofcancer.Cancer therapyismodeledasthepatient'sMarkovDecisionProblem,withtheobjectiveofmaximizing thepatient'sdiscountedexpectedqualityoflifeyears.Patientsmakedecisionson thedurationoftherapybasedontheprogressionofthediseaseaswellastheirownpreferences. Weobtainapowerfulanalyticdecisiontoolthroughwhichpatientsmayselect theirpreferredtreatmentstrategy.Weillustratethetradeospatientsarefacingin anumericalexampleandcalculatethevaluelosttoacohortwhochoosesuboptimalstrategies. Inasecondmodelpatientsmaymakechoicestoincludedrugholidays.Bydelayingtherapy,thepatienttemporarilyforgoesthegainsoftherapyinordertodelayits sideeects.Weobtainananalytictoolthatallowsnumericalapproximationsoftheoptimal timesofdelay.

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